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The decision · Consumer goods (FMCG/CPG)

Which promotions should we cut?

Promotions often borrow next month's sales. ActionBasis separates the sales a promotion adds from the sales it pulls forward or takes from your own range, by retailer, then weighs product cost, discount, retailer funding and execution cost before choosing which promotions to pause.

Get your company briefingConsumer goods (FMCG/CPG)
Which promotions should we cut? · Consumer brand
Incremental sales after pull-forward
  1. 1Multi-buy, retailer AAdds little; mostly pulled forwardModelled
  2. 2Temporary price cut, retailer B+2.1% to +3.8% of baseline salesModelled
  3. 3Seasonal bundleTakes sales from your own rangeDerived
  4. 4Loyalty points eventToo few weeks of data to estimate added salesAssumed

How we answer it

  1. 01

    Find the gaps

    Promotions, prices and sales are lined up by retailer, product and week.

  2. 02

    Refine scenarios

    Each promotion's added sales are separated from pull-forward and switching within your range.

  3. 03

    Plan for ROI

    Before choosing cuts, calculate incremental contribution after product cost, discount, retailer funding and execution cost. Added sales alone do not establish profit.

  4. 04

    Pace the steps

    Test pausing promotions with weak incremental contribution in matched regions. If cost inputs or enough weeks of data are missing, withhold the cut recommendation and collect the missing evidence.

  5. 05

    Measure and account

    Paused regions are compared with matched regions before a wider cut.

By decision

Which brand measures are linked to later sales?

Link from brand measure to sales

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