The decision · Network and location
Which stores should we refit first?
A refit programme has a fixed budget and a long list of tired stores. Compare the sales a refit might add alongside capital spend, incremental contribution and sales displaced from nearby own stores. The example below illustrates a sales-uplift ranking; it cannot select an investment without the cost and contribution inputs.
- 1Store 0412 · regional centre+6.1% to +9.4%Modelled
- 2Store 1187 · high street+4.8% to +8.2%Modelled
- 3Store 0096 · retail park+3.9% to +7.0%Modelled
- 4Store 0733 · suburban+1.2% to +3.5%Assumed
Illustrative cost boundary
Sales lift alone cannot justify a refit.
Recalculate the cost and contribution inputs used by an existing financial-policy test. Annual contribution is assumed separately from the measured sales effect.
Spend · assumed
1,000 illustrative monetary units, paid once.
Annual contribution · assumed
5,000 in the same units. This is an input, not profit inferred from the measured sales lift.
Conditional arithmetic
Simple payback: 2.4 months. First-year net return on spend: 400%. Both depend on the inputs shown here.
Payback = spend ÷ annual contribution × 12. Net return = (annual contribution − spend) ÷ spend. The test's policy requires an effect above 0.1%, at least 20% net return and payback within six months. The policy result depends on those thresholds and complete incremental costs.
The conditional calculation was checked against the native policy during build.
Inspect input boundaries and omissions
Missing, negative or nonfinite costs withhold financial output and recommendation. Explicit zero spend remains distinct: with valid positive contribution, payback is zero and percentage ROI is undefined. A refused or inconclusive measurement also withholds this demonstration's recommendation.
Annual contribution is an explicit steady-state assumption. It must account for incremental operating costs and cannibalisation before this arithmetic is used. Simple payback excludes ramp-up, downtime, discounting, tax, financing and working capital. Annual contribution and its uncertainty need a separate forecast or measurement.
Unzip and run node payback-replay.mjs with Node.js 18 or later. This replays public arithmetic, not the whole company model.
Input receipt SHA-256: 218730749a6b2a3d3707e096917960e4fbc7f1f8ef27e87ec4f94c25fad9186f
How we answer it
- 01
Find the gaps
Agree comparable stores using available traffic, conversion and sales data. Reviews can suggest questions; they do not establish a refit effect.
- 02
Refine scenarios
Use qualified past refits and comparable stores to estimate a range. Without suitable evidence, withhold the estimate.
- 03
Plan for ROI
Require capital spend and incremental contribution, including added operating costs and displacement from nearby own stores, before ranking investments.
- 04
Pace the steps
The first wave is chosen to learn most about the uncertain stores.
- 05
Measure and account
Agree the outcome, comparable controls and measurement period before the pilot. A twelve-week readout does not by itself validate the annual contribution assumed here.
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